Monday, September 12, 2011

For Irish debt, no news is good news

Here is a Google Insights for Search graph, showing how often Google users searched for 'Ireland debt', 'Ireland economy' and 'Ireland crisis' over the last 12 months:
So attention soared at the end of last year when the IMF and EU had to intervene. Now let's look at Ireland's bond 10 year yield for the same period:
We see a steadily worsening situation, followed by a steep reversal in fortunes as bond yields dramatically dropped. Next, here is 'Ireland debt' versus 'Greece debt':
And finally, Greece's bond 10 year yield:
Rising, recovering only a little and then continuing to rise. Now Greece's 10 year yield is far higher than Ireland's, and Google users are searching for information about Greek debt much more than Irish debt. If we restrict the Google Insights for Search data to just users in the US (thus removing Irish Google users searching for information about their own country), the gap widens even further. So it seems likely that no news can be a good thing in Ireland's case, as negative attention shifts elsewhere and interest or concern over Ireland's debt abates.

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